The Links Between an Average Indian and International Affairs
Afghanistan has been in the headlines for not less than two decades. And its role as a war front is as old as history. Have you ever recognized the need to know its affairs? Let’s look into the need of understanding the globe through Afghanistan and its effects on Indians. How on the earth does an average Indian, for whom even newspapers are a luxury, make it?? Reasonable!! Nonetheless, trust me, this is important not only for the diplomats and intelligence agencies but also for each of us.
International affairs influence some of the key attributes of common women’s life (why always men??), like oil prices, stock market, mutual funds, gold price, retail price rise and even the decorum of your family. At times when your meals become incomplete without daal or onions, keep in mind that even Afghanistan has something to do with it.
After the most celebrated US-Afghan agreement, the Ghani government and the United States are implementing their promises one by one. Release of Taliban prisoners, peace deals, and pull back of US troops are some of them. But why did the Taliban leave the Doha peace talks even before giving their word back? Does that have something to do with us?
India & Afghanistan
India used to be one of the supporting pillars of the democratically elected Ashraf Ghani government for so long that it even included the country in its strategic partners’ list. Starting from India’s strategic Chabahar project (which includes Iran and Afghanistan) to the recent initiatives for the construction of the Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul River, points out the importance of Afghanistan for India. Although not invited, India has always been a keen observer of developments in Kabul.
As the US is withdrawing its men from Afghan soil after a long-fought war since the 9/11 attack, India has to make its presence visible. India never supported the Taliban as it is one of the major allies of Pakistan-sponsored Al Qaeda, and other terrorist groups used to be a headache for India since its independence.
So after the US withdrawal, if the Taliban makes a government in Afghanistan, throwing out the Ghani government either democratically(least possible) or by a coup then, it will damage India’s interests in multiple ways.
Possible Aftermath
Firstly, as the Taliban – Al Qaeda bond is visibly strong, the insurgents can operate through a different and less explored platform of Afghanistan against India in particular. Though the Taliban has made clear in the agreement itself that it will cut off all links with other insurgent groups in the region, they are continuing their ties along with a continuum of cruelties (Haven’t yet implemented the cease-fire as mentioned in the accord).
Thus if the Taliban comes up with a government, India will have issues not only in internal security but also its gateway to central Asia through Afghanistan will be closed. The impulse of a break in the friendship will weigh more than what we can imagine if China takes the opportunity to cooperate with the Taliban. It will affect India’s trade with many countries and result in declining demand for the rupee in the international market. The price rise and retail inflation will be the aftermaths.
Also, increasing threats to internal security will result in the FDA flying away from India to other emerging Asian markets. It will reduce the capital formation and ultimately affect job creation. Increased rate of unemployment will burden the primary sector along with a rapid fall in the GDP. Also, the Indian diaspora in the central Asian region may have to pay off more. That will in long term affect the standard of living in India, and the sustainable development goals of India will become undone as the purchasing power of the rupee decreases.
Once retail prices increase, savings of people will decrease, which will result in the reduced credit-giving capability of the banking and non-banking sector. The MSME sector will suffer the most from a lack of investments, making even more people jobless. This chain reaction grows and grows unless an external booster comes through.
In Sum
Though most of these speculations are ideal case scenarios in long term, we can’t predict how unlikely the occurrence may be. Each decision taken by the Government of India regarding its external affairs and diplomatic relations will ultimately reflect in the lives of people. Thus the recent decisions of CAA and J&K issues will do no good by any means. An even worse tie with Iran will only fuel things.
The example of Afghanistan may not make sense if we don’t read it with an image of the entire world in mind. Being the citizens of India, we must keep a watch on the diplomatic relations of India with global countries and the current geopolitical status of the world, especially that of its neighbours. As I said above, the isostasy may not always be maintained with a positive inclination towards us. Thus having the know-how of the events prior will help reduce its impact from the microeconomic perspective.
in a bigger picture this can happen. it’s a little exaggerated one.